WHAT IS COST OF CARRY?

Cost of Carry or COC is the cost incurred by an investor to hold certain positions in the underlying market until the futures contract expires. This cost includes the risk-free interest rate. Dividend payment from the underlying is excluded from the COC.

The COC is the difference between the futures and the spot price of a stock or index. The cost of carry is important because the higher the value of the COC, the greater will be the willingness of traders to pay more money to hold the futures.

How is CoC calculated?

Theoretically, Future price fair value=Spot Price+Cost of Carry-Dividend Payout Cost of Carry = Difference between the futures and spot price at any time. CoC is calculated as an annual rate and expressed in percentage values. The real-time CoC values are available on stock exchange websites.

How is it interpreted?

The value of CoC is used as an indicator to understand the market sentiment i.e. Low CoC means there is a fall in the value of the underlying and vice versa.

How is it calculated?

Traders often refer to CoC to guage market sentiment. Analysts interpret a significant fall inCoC as an indicator of an impending fall in the underlying. For example, CoC of benchmark index Nifty futures dropped by nearly half a fortnight ago,and served as an indicator of the consequent correction in the index.Conversely, when the CoC for a stock future rises, it means that traders are willing to incur higher costs for holding the position and,thus,expect a rise in the underlying. CoC is expressed as an annualized figure in percentage.

CAN COST OF CARRY BE NEGATIVE?

Yes. When futures trade at a discount to the underlying, the resultant cost of carry is negative. This usually happens for two reasons: when the stock is expected to pay a dividend,or when traders are aggressively executing a “reverse arbitrage” strategy, which involves buying spot and selling futures. Negative cost of carry points to bearish sentiment

HOW DOES COST OF CARRY REPRESENT BULLISHNESS OR BEARISHNESS?

Change in CoC seen along with open interest shape a clear picture of broader sentiment for the stock or index. Open interest is the total number of open positions in a contract. For a rising OI,an increase in CoC indicates accumulation of long(or bullish) positions, while an accompanied fall in the CoC indicates addition of short positions and bearishness. Likewise, a fall in OI,accompanied with a rise in CoC, indicates closure of short positions. A falling both OI and CoC indicates that traders are closing long positions. Analysts also observe changes in CoC at the expiry of derivatives contract. If a significant number of positions are rolled over with a higher cost of carry,it implies bullishness.